我国乳品产业链利益配比的风险系数修正模型研究

乳品产业链较长，包括原料生产、乳品加工、运输销售等多个环节，如果各环节的利润分配严重不合理则会增加食品安全的潜在风险。本文基于高风险高收益的出发点，研究我国乳品产业链各环节合理的利益配比，为乳品产业的良性发展提供合理化建议。首先采用模糊物元法及熵权法对我国乳品产业各环节的风险进行综合评价，并计算风险系数；其次基于调研数据，分析各环节对应利益主体的贡献与利益分配的失衡现状；在此基础上将风险系数作为风险承担因子，利用修正的Shapley值模型计算得到风险系数修正的利益分配方案；最后提出相应措施和建议，以促使产业形成均衡的风险利益配比，从而降低乳品产业链风险。

Profit matching of China's dairy industry chain based on risk coefficient correction

Dairy industry chain is long, including raw material production, dairy processing, transportation and sales and other links. If the profit distribution of each link is seriously unreasonable, it will increase the potential risk of dairy safety. Based on the starting point that high risk should bring high profit, this paper studied the reasonable profit ratio of each link of China''s dairy industry chain, and provides reasonable suggestions for the benign development of the dairy industry. Firstly used Fuzzy Matter-Element method and Entropy Weight method to comprehensively evaluate the risk of each link in China''s dairy industry, and calculate the risk coefficient; Then discussed the unbalanced status of the profit distribution of each link; On this basis, the risk coefficient was taken as the risk bearing factor, and by using the modified Shapley Value model, we obtained the final reasonable profit distribution scheme of the dairy industry chain; Finally, corresponding measures and suggestions are put forward to promote the industry to form a balanced risk-profit ratio, so as to reduce the risk of the dairy industry chain.