全球价值链嵌入与制造业转移 ——基于贸易增加值的实证分析

本文利用亚洲开发银行的多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO),依据出口贸易增加值分解框架,测算了中国制造业细分行业2000—2017年的全球价值链嵌入位置和国际产业转移情况,通过构建动态面板模型,实证分析了全球价值链嵌入位置对制造业国际转移的影响。研究发现:第一,价值链地位提升促进产业向外转移。劳动生产率提升、垂直专业化与研发投入的交互作用有利于产业向外转移,而过度投资和行业垄断则导致产业向内转移。第二,分行业类型检验结果表明,中低技术行业产业转移对于价值链嵌入位置提升的反应更为敏感。第三,影响机制检验表明,外商直接投资和中间品贸易是全球价值链地位提升作用于产业转移的主要渠道。

Global Value Chain Embedding and Manufacturing Transfer: Empirical Analysis Based on Trade Added Value

Based on the Asian Development Bank''s multi-regional input-output table (ADB-MRIO), this paper uses decomposition framework of export trade value added, calculate the embedded position of global value chains(GVC) and international industry transfer of Chinese manufacturing segment between 2000 and 2017. This paper analyzes the impact of the embedded position of GVC on international industrial transfer based on the dynamic panel model empirically. It''s found that: first, the promotion of the GVC''s position promotes the outward transfer of industries, the increased of labor productivity, vertical specialization, and R&D investment is beneficial to outward transfer of industries, while excessive investment and industry monopolies lead to the inward transfer of industries. Second, the test results by industry type shows that the industrial transfer of low and medium-tech industries is more sensitive to the response of the value chain embedded position. Third, the examination of the impact mechanism shows that FDI and intermediate trade are the main channels for GVC''s position enhancement to industrial transfer.