Technology Gap and Cumulative Growth: Models and outcomes

Addressing the question of why productivity growth rates differ between countries from a disequilibrium standpoint, the paper explores the possibility of combining in a single formalisation two different but complementary theories of technical change and macroeconomic growth--namely the Kaldorian idea of cumulative causation and the technology-gap approach to economic growth. In order to investigate the complementarities between these two approaches, a two-country macroeconomic model of technology-gap and cumulative growth is presented. The analytical solutions of the model for the growth rates of productivity and demand, and the dynamics of the technology-gap show the existence of a large set of possible outcomes: the follower country can fall behind, partly or totally catch up, or overtake the leader. Moreover, even if the follower is able to close the technology-gap, it will not necessarily be able to close the growth rate differential. The empirical evidence on the experience of 26 OECD countries during 1991-99 shows the relevance of the model for explaining the recent performance of technological activities and productivity growth.