The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Michigan, United States;2. NBER, United States;3. CEPR, United Kingdom;4. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, IL 60604, United States;1. Department of Finance, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, Canada BC V6T 1Z2;2. Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, United States;1. Boston University, Questrom School of Business, USA;2. Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE, Spain;1. New York University and NBER, United States;2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, United States |
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| Abstract: | Using novel estimates of sectoral total factor productivities for 72 countries across 5 decades we provide evidence of relative productivity convergence: productivity grew systematically faster in initially relatively less productive sectors. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. Had productivity in each country׳s manufacturing sector relative to the US remained the same as in the 1960s, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. Relative sectoral productivity convergence – holding average growth fixed – had a modest negative welfare impact. |
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| Keywords: | Technological change Sectoral TFP Ricardian models of trade Welfare |
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