The American economy in the 1980's

Conclusion There are many things that could distort or completely change the picture that has been sketched of the U.S. economy in the 1980's. War and major technological innovations are two that come immediately to mind. A quick and unexpected reversal of the trends that form the basis of the picture could also, although this seems very unlikely. Or new and unanticipated socio-psychological trends could be generated which would result in a different picture than the one presented. Perhaps it appears that I have stuck my neck out in this discussion. If you think that, you are wrong; I am in a can't-lose situation. If I am right, I can always point to my statements of 1978. Since the anticipations of this paper cannot be fully judged for at least a decade, I am safe even if I am wrong. In ten years nobody except me will remember what I said today, and even I may not. Presidential Address to the Sixth Annual Atlantic Economic Conference, October 11–14, 1978, Washington, D.C.