战略性新兴产业与传统产业关系动态分析

在演化博弈论的框架下,根据战略性新兴产业与传统产业的博弈收益矩阵,本文构建了复制动态方程,揭示了两类产业的动态演化规律,并求得在不同初始条件下的进化稳定策略。研究结果表明新兴产业与传统产业之间存在开放性的非线性递进关系,不一定表现为动态正向的线性关联;战略性新兴产业与传统产业的演化博弈结果依赖于初始条件的选择;新兴产业从萌芽、到与传统产业"双峰逼近"、再到两类产业协调发展、最后形成新兴产业对传统产业"良币驱逐劣币"阶段,新兴产业在经济当中占据的比重越来越大,经济的增长主要依靠新兴产业快速成长的增量扩张。

A Dynamic Analysis of Relationships between Strategic Emerging Industries and Traditional Industries

On the framework of evolution game theory,this paper makes a replicated dynamic equation based on the payoff matrix of the strategic emerging industries and traditional industries to reveal the evolution laws and get an evolutionary stable strategy based on different initial conditions.The results of the study show that emerging industries and traditional industries have an open nonlinear progressive relation,not necessarily show dynamic positive linear correlation;the evolution game results of the emerging industries and traditional industries depend on the choice of initial conditions.With emerging industries experience budding stage,the twin peaks approximation stage,coordination development stage,the strategic emerging industries driving out traditional industries stage,emerging industries will claim an ever-growing share of economy,in which the economic growth mainly relies on expansion of emerging industries.