对外开放与我国经济增长的实证分析

本文通过建立对外开放度内生化的生产函数,运用协整方法,对我国对外开放与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国的实际产出、对外开放度、实际资本存量与就业人口之间,至少存在单向的因果关系;从长期来看,变量之间存在一种稳定的均衡关系,对外开放度越高,经济增长越快;从短期来看,均衡关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较慢。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Openness and Economic Growth in China: 1978-2004

Through building production function of endogenous degree of openness and using the cointegration theory, this paper investigates the relationship between openness and economic growth in China. The empirical result proves that at least one-direction Granger-causality exists in real GDP, degree of openness, real capital and labor; there is a long-term steady equilibrium relationship in the above variables; the higher the degree of openness, the greater the economics growth is; the speed of adjusting from short-run departure to long-run equilibrium is slow. At last, this paper analyzes the above results as a whole.