中国水产品出口贸易流量与潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究

中国作为世界上最大的水产品生产国，近30年水产品出口一直保持增长，在全球水产品市场中的比重大幅度增加，同时面临着与其他国家同业间的竞争。本文运用拓展的引力模型对1999年～2007年中国水产品出口相关的面板数据进行了实证检验，并对主要出口市场水产品贸易潜力进行了测算与分析。研究表明，引力模型只能对中国水产品出口贸易流量和潜力起到部分的解释作用，虽然中国水产品出口对欧美日等市场呈现出所谓的“过度贸易”，对泰国、印度尼西亚等表现为“贸易不足”，但这一总体趋势不会有太大改变。另外，进出口市场之间的产品竞争程度、进口市场的消费习惯也是进出口贸易可能的影响因素。

Export trade flow and potential of Chinese aquatic products ---based on Gravity Model

As the biggest producer of aquatic products in the world, China＇s export value of aquatic products has been increasing in the past 30 years, and its share in global market has a sharp increase. At the same time, it also has being faced with the competition of the same industry from other countries. Using panel dada during 1997-2007, this paper analyzes the export of Chinese aquatic products by means of the enlarged Gravity Model and measures its export potential to the main export markets for aquatic products in the world. The result indicates that the Gravity Model can only take a part role in explanation of export trade flow and potential of Chinese aquatic products Although it manifests so called ＂excessive export＂ to some markets such as EU, USA and Japan and shows ＂deficient export＂ to some markets such as Thailand and Indonesia, but the total trend will not change too much. Competitiveness of products between import and export markets and consumption custom of import market are the possible factors.