产业结构调整的收入分配效应研究--基于1998-2012年中国省际面板数据模型的分析

产业结构调整作为政府实现宏观发展战略目标的重要调控手段，具有显著的收入分配效应。构建产业结构调整对城乡收入差距影响机理的分析框架，利用中国30个省份1998-2012年的面板数据，运用联立方程模型和内生分布滞后模型，研究产业结构调整的收入分配效应，结果发现：由于产业结构调整与人力资本结构负相关，在即期会强化农村居民在就业市场中的弱势地位，扩大城乡收入差距；在长期，城乡居民根据产业结构调整重塑就业预期，通过调整人力资本投资结构、提升人力资本水平实现职业转换，第5年以后将出现农村居民收入增幅高于城镇居民的格局，形成乡城收入赶超效应，产生缩小城乡收入差距的正面效应。

Research on the Income Distribution Effects of Industrial Structure Adjustment---Based on Provincial Panel Data Model in China 1998-2012

As the government macroscopic development strategy goal of important regulation means,in-dustrial structure adjustment has significant effects of the income distribution. This paper incorporates distribu-tion-lag model into a system of equations to study the income distribution effects of industrial structure adjust-ment on human capital investment by using a panel dataset consist of 30 provinces in China 1998-2012 . It is found that due to the industrial structure adjustment is negatively related to the human capital structure,which will instantly strengthen rural residents in the weak position in the job market and enlarge the income gap be-tween urban and rural areas. And in the long run,according to the industrial structure adjustment,the urban and rural residents will reshape the employment expectations by adjusting the human capital investment struc-ture and enhancing the level of human capital to achieve professional conversion. Then there will be a pattern that rural resident＇s income increase is higher than urban resident＇s,the formation of rural-urban income sur-passing effect,which produces positive effect of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.