| 江苏省旅游收入预测及其影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾佳敏,姚惠芳.江苏省旅游收入预测及其影响因素分析[J].中国林业经济,2020(2):101-103,133. |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾佳敏 姚惠芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京林业大学经济管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 南京林业大学大学生实践创新训练计划项目“互联网+时代OTA的转型升级研究”(2019NFUSPITP0224)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着生活质量的提高与消费需求的改变,人们对于旅游消费的需求日益旺盛。旅游业作为第三产业中的朝阳产业,推动交通运输业、餐饮业、住宿业等多产业经济发展。以江苏省旅游业为研究对象,采用2010-2018年相关旅游数据,运用灰色预测GM (1,1)模型进行未来5年的旅游收入数据模拟;并采用数学降维的思想,运用主成分分析方法,借助SPSS软件将17个原始影响因子转化为2个主成分;通过定量分析江苏省旅游收入的影响因素,提出了影响程度的排序相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游收入 灰色预测 主成分分析 江苏省 |
Analysis of Tourism Revenue Forecast and Its Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province |
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| GU Jia-min,YAO Hui-fang.Analysis of Tourism Revenue Forecast and Its Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province[J].China Forestry Economy,2020(2):101-103,133. |
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| Authors: | GU Jia-min YAO Hui-fang |
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| Institution: | (College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the improvement of life quality and consumption demand, people’s demand for tourism consumption is increasingly strong.Tourismpromotes the economic development of transportation, catering and accommodation industriesas a sunrise industry in the tertiary industry. This paper used GM(1,1) model of gray prediction and the relevant tourism data from 2010 to 2018 to simulate tourism income data in the next five years by taking tourism in Jiangsu province as the research object. In addition, it used SPSS software and principal component analysis method to convertedthe 17 original influence factors into 2 principal components based on the idea of mathematical dimensionality reduction. It proposed some suggestions of the ranking of the influencing degree through the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of tourism income in Jiangsu province. |
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| Keywords: | tourism income grey prediction principal component analysis Jiangsu province |
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