长江经济带物流业对区域经济发展影响的实证分析

文章以货运量和地区生产总值为衡量物流和经济发展的指标,运用Logistic模型分析长江经济带上、中、下游物流业与区域经济发展之间的定量关系,采用边际分析和弹性分析的方法计算出长江经济带物流业对经济发展的贡献.结果表明：（1）长江经济带物流已经经历规模快速扩张的阶段,粗放的增长对经济发展的贡献有限,应该将重点放在提高信息系统保障能力、经营管理运作能力、发展环境支持能力等“软件”建设方面; （2）长江经济带下游物流与经济处于良性循环状态,应尽快构建区域物流信息网络系统,整合区域物流资源,发展与IT产业和高技术产业相适应的快速物流业,探索第四方物流的实现形式; （3）长江经济带中上游地区,在推进基础物流建设的同时,抓住新一代信息技术普及的机遇,发展现代物流产业.

Empirical Analysis of Logistics Industry in Yangtze River Economic Belt for Regional Economy Growth

This article choose the freighl and gross domestic product as measurable indicators fin＂ lngistics industry and regional economic development, adopts logistic model to analysis the function between logistics industry and regional economy development in the upper, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River economic belt, and adopts the marginal analysis and elastic analysis methods to calculate the increasing number of economics resulted in logistic industry of Yangtze River economic belt. The results showed that： （1） The logistics industry of Yangtze River economie belt has gone through the stage of rapid expansion of scale. Extensive growth of the logistics industry, has insufficient contributions to economic development. We should pour more resources into ＂software＂ buildings, such as information systems support capabilities, operational management capabilities, support capacity for developmental environment etc. （：2） The logistics industry and economy are in a virtuous cycle state in downstream of the Yangtze River economic belt. We shouht as soon as possible construction inibrmation network system for regional logistics indus- try, integrate regional logistics resources, develop fast logistics industry that is matched with IT industries and high-tech industries, explore implementation forms for fourth party logistics. （3） The upper reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt region, while promoting the construction of basic logistics, should seize the opportunity that new generation information technology is getting widespread to develop modern logistics industry.