土地市场与宏观经济关系的理论分析及实证检验

研究目的:分析需求拉动的经济增长对土地市场的影响以及土地供应量加大对经济增长的影响,并应用经济周期理论以及蛛网模型分析土地供应滞后调节对宏观经济的影响,以揭示土地市场与宏观经济之间的关系。研究方法:理论分析与实证检验相结合。研究结论:(1)土地市场的发展和宏观经济的增长互为因果关系(。2)GDP同土地供应量及地价呈正相关关系,GDP对土地供应量变动的敏感程度大于对地价变动的敏感程度(。3)中国的土地供应价格弹性为0.45,是缺乏弹性的。(4)虽然前期土地市场对经济也产生了影响,但远远低于当期土地市场对经济的影响力。

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study on Interdependence between Land market and Macroeconomic

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the affect of demand-induced economic growth on land market and that of increasing land supply on economic growth.Theory of economic cycles and cobweb-model are used to elaberate the influences that lagged adjustment of land supply may impose on macroeconomic.Theoretical analysis and empirical approch are applied in the study.The conclusions are as follows: Firstly,the macroeconomic growth and the development of land market are causally related to each other.Secondly,there is positive correlation among GDP,land supply and market land value,the land supply change is more sensitive to GDP fluctuation than to that of land value.Thirdly,it is demonstrated that China's land supply is lack of flexibility with the land value elasticity coefficient of 0.45.Finally,the early land market produces far less effect on economy than current land market.