Projections of maize yield vulnerability to droughts and adaptation options in Uganda |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. W., Burnside Hall 614, Montreal, Quebec, H3A 0B9, Canada;2. Department of Geography, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062 Kampala, Uganda;1. Department of Agricultural Economics, IFAPA – Andalusian Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Centro Alameda del Obispo, Apartado 3092, 14080 Córdoba, Spain;2. Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Córdoba, Campus Rabanales, Ctra. N-IV km 396, 14014 Córdoba, Spain;3. Department of Agricultural Economics, IFAPA - Andalusian Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Centro Camino de Purchil, Apartado 18004 Granada, Spain;1. School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, 6009, Australia;2. Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia;3. Centre for Applied Psychology, The University of Canberra, ACT, Australia;4. The Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National University, ACT, Australia;1. Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. University of the Aegean, Department of Geography, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece;3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Wageningen University, Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN Wageningen, The Netherlands;2. Corvinus University of Budapest, Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research, Hungary;1. University of Granada, Dept. of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business, Sciences and Economics Faculty, Campus La Cartuja s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain;2. University of Almería, Dept. of Applied Economic, Sciences and Economics Faculty, Ctra. de Sacramento s/n, 04120, La Cañada de San Urbano, Almería, Spain;3. University of Granada, Dept. of Mathematics Didactic, Education Sciences Faculty, Campus La Cartuja s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain |
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| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa is likely going to experience more intense and frequent droughts with high parallel possibilities of ramifications on maize yields. While there is a lot of scholarship dwelling on the ramifications of droughts on maize yields at the level of Africa, little has been researched at lower scales. This study presents past (1960–2014) vulnerability of maize yields to droughts based on a previous study (Epule et al., 2017) and projects the future vulnerability of maize yields to droughts by calculating the sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of maize yields to droughts for the period 2015–2050. The results show that maize yields are more vulnerable in the north of Uganda for the period 1960–2014. However, adaptive capacity is higher in the south. Maize yields also record higher levels of sensitivity and exposure in the north with the latter patterns explained by variations in precipitation, temperature, rich volcanic soils, access to rivers and lakes. In terms of future vulnerability for the period 2015–2050, this study shows that the level of vulnerability of maize yields to droughts in Uganda will increase to levels higher than what currently obtains. For example, the vulnerability index will increase from 0.54 under the 1.5 °C to 0.70 under the 2.0 °C and to 1.54 under the 2.5 °C scenario. Sensitivity is also likely to increase while exposure and adaptive capacity are most likely to remain the same. Overall, it can be said that the future of maize production in Uganda under present and future circumstances remains very bleak without concrete actions. As a way forward, land use policy designers will have to integrate water management, agroforestry, climatic information diffusion, training and indigenous knowledge into land use planning decisions in the context of agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | Uganda Projections Vulnerability Sensitivity Exposure Adaptive capacity Droughts Maize |
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