Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations: An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos,Greece |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. University of the Aegean, Department of Geography, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece;3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, School of Agriculture and Mineral Sciences, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh;2. Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Institute of Geography, Wetterkreuz 15, 91058, Erlangen, Germany;1. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;2. Social-Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain;3. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Parque Científico de UPV/EHU, Barrio Sarriena s/n, 48940, Leioa, Spain;4. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellatera, Barcelona, Spain;5. Department of International Environment and Development Studies (Noragric), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), P.O. Box 5003, Ås N-1432, Norway;6. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research NINA, Postboks Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway;1. University of Granada, Dept. of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business, Sciences and Economics Faculty, Campus La Cartuja s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain;2. University of Almería, Dept. of Applied Economic, Sciences and Economics Faculty, Ctra. de Sacramento s/n, 04120, La Cañada de San Urbano, Almería, Spain;3. University of Granada, Dept. of Mathematics Didactic, Education Sciences Faculty, Campus La Cartuja s/n, 18071, Granada, Spain;1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian City, Shahekou District, Huanghe Road, No. 850, Liaoning Province, China;2. Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian City, Shahekou District, Huanghe Road, No. 850, Liaoning Province, China |
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| Abstract: | Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics that have sustained environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are important root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decision-making nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealing a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate both increased profitability and action by landscape initiatives are required to reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario. |
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| Keywords: | Cultural landscapes Collective action Scenarios Decision-making Landscape change Abandonment |
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