中国城镇消费结构变动及相关因素的实证分析

本文在对中国城镇居民消费支出结构与居民可支配收入进行协整分析的基础上,引入市场化指数、现代化指数、消费者信心指数等环境因素,对中国城镇居民消费支出结构进行了广义分析。文章认为,中国城镇居民可支配收入、现代化指数、消费者信心指数、市场化指数与消费支出结构都具有长期均衡的协整关系;城镇居民收入与各消费支出均衡机制对消费结构变化具有强烈的制约作用,其强烈程度顺序为食品、医保、居住、家用、衣着、文教、杂项和交通;文教和居住的当期收入对当期消费支出的影响较大;消费结构的变化与居民可支配收入、现代化指数、市场化指数和消费者信心指数息息相关。

A Positive Analysis of the Change of Consumption Structure in Chinese Urban Areas and the Correlated Factors

Based on the analysis of consumption structure and urban per capita disposable income of China,the author introduces such correlated factors as marketization index,modernization index and the consumer confidence index,and analyzes the consumption structure in Chinese urban areas.The author points out that the relationship between all these factors and consumption structure is coordinated in the long-term.The income of urban residents and the balance mechanism among all kinds of consumptions play an important role in constraining consumption structure.Culture and education and housing influence the current consumption seriously.The change of consumption structure is closely related to the disposable income of urban people,modernization index,marketization index and consumer confidence index.