中国外贸进出口对税收的影响：理论与实证

对外贸易对中国的税收有怎样的影响?回答这一问题，对制定贸易政策有重要的现实意义。本文对1-2-3模型进行修正，将总产出区分为4种具有不同税收特征的产品，构建相应的税收模型，从理论上分析了对外贸易对税收有正面的影响。实际测算显示，一般贸易出口每增加1元人民币，会相应带动当年税收增加0．4～0．5元人民币。通过对季度数据的Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型分析，本文发现出口增加对税收有持续的正面影响。

The Effects of Trade on Tax Revenue of China: Theory and Evidence

It is practically helpful for making trade policy to answer how foreign trade influences China s tax revenue. In this paper, we provide a tax model by modifying the 1-2-3 model, in which the total products are divided into four categories according to their different tax characters. Theoretical analysis shows that foreign trade has positive effects on tax. According to our measurement, increasing export by 1 Yuan RMB will increase tax by 0.4 to 0.5 Yuan in one year. Empirical evidences based on Granger causality test and a vector error correction model show that export shock has long and positive effects on the tax.