What Happens to Nascent Entrepreneurs? An Econometric Analysis of the PSED

abstract This article follows the progress of a large and nationally representative sample of American nascent entrepreneurs – identified in the initial interview of the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED) – over the next 12 months of the panel. We develop a novel theoretical framework based on maximisation of expected utility and the value of waiting, and estimate it to reveal which personal and economic characteristics are associated with venture start-up – and which are associated with remaining a nascent entrepreneur, or giving up entirely. The value of waiting turns out to play a key role in helping us understand what happens to nascent entrepreneurs. We discuss the implications of our results for entrepreneurs, lenders, business start-up support agencies and policy-makers.*The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, as well as participants at Imperial College, London; Palm Springs (USASBE 2005); Babson College (BKERC 2005); and Clemson University (2004 PSED Symposium) and in particular Tom Lumpkin and Kelly Shaver for helpful comments on an earlier draft. The usual disclaimer applies.