《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的经济效应及产业产出分析

为进一步推进《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》进程,东盟及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等亚太地区的各个经济体通过“抱团”的方式增强亚太地区的经济实力,提高国际贸易的话语权。本文分析《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员在亚太地区的经济规模以及各个成员经济体的产业竞争优势,运用GTAP9.0数据库和一般均衡模型,以逐步降低《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》内部成员之间关税水平的方式,探讨《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员的宏观经济及产业产出情况。随着《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员内部关税水平的逐步降低直至零关税水平,成员经济体的进出口贸易、福利水平等方面都有不同程度的增加,中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰等国的国内经济产出增加、贸易条件得到改善,而印度和东盟的国内经济出现一定程度的负效应、贸易条件出现小幅恶化现象;同时,各个成员方的产业互补优势更加明显。

Analysis of the Economic Effect and Industrial Output of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

In order to further promote the RCEP process,ASEAN and China through the“Huddle”,should enhance economic strength and improve the position of international trade.Through the analysis of the economic scale of RCEP in the Asia-Pacific Region and economic industrial competitive advantage of each member,this paper uses GTAP9.0 database and general equilibrium model,in order to gradually reduce tariffs among the members of the RCEP,to study macroeconomic and industry output.As the internal tariffs are gradually reduced in RCEP to zero tariff,the import and export trade,welfare level of member economies increase in different degrees.The gross domestic products of China,Japan,Korea,Australia and New Zealand improve in terms of trade,while India and ASEAN are in a certain degree of negative effect,and a small trade conditions in deteriorating phenomenon.At the same time,complementary advantages in each member's industries are more apparent.Therefore,the member economies should adhere to political mutual trust,optimize industrial division of labor system,and promote RCEP reached as soon as possible.