Quantifying Structural Change in U.S. Agriculture: The Case of Research and Productivity |
| |
Authors: | Oehmke James F Schimmelpfennig David E |
| |
Institution: | (1) Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824;(2) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1800 M Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20036 |
| |
Abstract: | Previous work on structural change in agriculture has failed to distinguish long-run trends from structural breaks leading to new trends. We measure structural changes as statistically significant breaks in either stochastic or deterministic time trends, and apply these measures to agricultural productivity and research. Productivity has a break in 1925 accompanying agriculture's early experience with the Great Depression. Research trends shifted in 1930 as the Depression and new technology began to strongly influence efficient farm size and capitalization. After modeling lags between research and productivity impacts in a vector autoregression (VAR), we compare our results to earlier work by developing a procedure to estimate the rate of return to research from the impulse response function of the VAR. |
| |
Keywords: | agricultural research multi-factor productivity stationarity structural breaks |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|