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A novel fuzzy neural approach to data reconstruction and failure prediction
Authors:C Quek  R W Zhou  C H Lee
Institution:1. Centre for Computational Intelligence, formerly Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Block N4 #2A-32, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798;2. School of Insurance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan 610074, People's Republic of China
Abstract:Bank failure prediction is of great importance to a bank's clients, policy-makers and regulators. Various traditional models have been employed to study bank failures. Unfortunately, their performances are unsatisfactory. In this paper, the pseudo-outer product fuzzy neural network using the compositional rule of inference and singleton fuzzifier (POPFNN-CRI(S))-based bank failure prediction model is proposed. It employs computational bank failure analysis techniques coupled with reconstruction of missing financial data in financial covariates that are available from publicly available financial statements as inputs. The performance of the proposed model is assessed through the classification rate of 3636 US banks observed over a 21-year period. The effects of missing data reconstruction are investigated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords:
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