人民币实际汇率与进出口国别结构实证分析

笔者运用中国和美元区、日元区、欧元区(以德国为例)、韩元区、东盟区(以新加坡为代表)等五大货币区1981年～2003年的年度数据,通过Panel Date 分析人民币实际双边汇率变化对中国进出口国别结构的影响,并就1994年前后人民币实际双边汇率对进出口国别结构的影响进行了结构性诊断检验,研究结果表明:1994年前,人民币实际汇率变化与日本、美国在华进口流向指标存在着较高的正相关关系,与德国、新加坡在华进口流各指标存在着较强的负相关关系;1994年后,人民币实际汇率变化与德国、新加坡在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.与美国、日本、韩国在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.

An Empirical Analysis of the Actual Exchange Rate of RMB and Import and Export Market Structure

Using the annual data of China and the other five monetary zones of USA,Japan,Europe(taking Germany as an example),South Korea and ASEAN(taking Singapore as an example) in the years of 1981~2003,with panel data analysis,the author analyzes the influence of the variance in the actual bilateral exchange rate of RMB on the import and export market structure of China,and diagnoses and tests the effect of the actual bilateral exchange rate of RMB on the import and export market structure around 1994.The result shows that before 1994 with the revaluation of RMB,the export proportion of China to Japan,Germany and Singapore rose,the import proportion of China from Japan and USA rose;after 1994,with the revaluation of RMB,the export proportion of China to USA,Germany,South Korea and Singapore dropped and the import proportion of China from USA,Japan,and South Korea dropped.