美国商业房地产复苏的实证分析及趋势判断

美国商业房地产特别是多家庭住房是支撑本轮经济复苏的重要力量。商业房地产中公寓楼空置率最低且下降最快，但需求扩张力度在减缓。商业抵押恢复较为缓陵，收缩幅度呈缩小趋势，可能成为继多家庭抵押之后房地产复苏支撑力量。商业房地产复苏有相当强的联邦政府支持背景，机构和GSE支持抵押池、国民存款机构和私人养老基金的抵押对商业房地产复苏的支撑力度在逐渐加大。商业和多家庭抵押的信用风险状况改善较快。未来商业房地产价格呈上升趋势，但公寓楼价格升势可能减缓。商业房地产销售缓慢增长；多家庭住房销售呈扩张趋势，但势头逐渐减缓。多家庭租房空置率降势在下半年可能转为缓升势头；住房开工扩张势头开始减缓，明年可能平稳或发生变化。商业抵押呈波动式缓良扩张态势；多家庭抵押持续扩张势头减缓，明年下半年可能逆转。商业房地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）发行扩张，但余额扩张缓陵。商业抵押、商业银行商业抵押以及CMBS的拖欠率继续下降各级CMBS的风险利差可能平稳波动或缓慢趋高。商业房地产市场的活跃程度可能略有加强，明年商业房地产整体情况将略好于今年。

The Empirical Analying and Forecasting on the Recovery of U. S. Commercial Real Estate

U.S. economic recovery is supported by the commercial real estate especially multifamily housing. The vacancy rate for the apartment buildings is at lowest level and decreases most rapidly, but the decreasing acceleration velocity is getting slower, and demand expansion is also slower Commercial mortgage recovers slowly, and its contraction spread tends to be narrow, probably becomes the main supporting factor for the real estate recovery after the multifamily mortgages. The recovery of commercial real estate is strongly supported by the federal government, and also strongly supported by the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool, national depository institution and private pension fund. The situation of credit risks for commercial and multifamily mortgages has improved even faster. In the coming future, the price of commercial real estate will tend to increase, but increasing price of apartments will slow down. The sales of commercial real estate will increase slowly, and so will those of multifamily housing, but the increasing of it will be slow. The decreasing vacancy rate of multifamily will turn to increase slowly in the second half of this year, and increasing of multifamily housing starts will begin to slow down, and probably be stable or happen to go down in the second half of next year. Commercial mortgage will tend to increase slowly. The increasing of multifamily mortgage will slow down, and will turn to decrease in the second half of next year. The issuance of CMBS will increase, but the outstanding of it will increase slowly. Delinquency rates of commercial mortgage and that in the commercial banks and CMBS will continue to decrease. Spread in various risky levels will be stable or tend to increase slowly. Market of commercial real estate will probably be a little bit more active, and the situation of real estate will be a little better as a whole next year than this year.