外部冲击视角下的中国寿险需求分析——基于向量自回归模型及脉冲响应函数的动态计量检验

使用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,从外部冲击视角分析显示:农民收入以及社会保障体系是影响中国寿险需求的主要因素.一般而言,社保和商业寿险呈替代关系,但本文的实证结果意外证明了两者具有长期互补性.由此,作者衍生的政策建议是把增加农民收入作为拉动寿险需求的长期政策,不断完善社保机制,实现社保与寿险的良性互动.

An Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance in China from the Perspective of External Impact A Dynamic Quantitive Test Based on VAR Model and Impulse Response Function

The analysis with VAR model and impulse response function from the perspective of external impact shows that farmers' income and social security system are the main factors that influence the demand for life insurance in China.Generally speaking,social security and commercial life insurance complement each other,but the empirical result of this paper unexpectedly proves their long-term mutual complementation relationship.The author's policy suggestion derived from this is that increasing farmers' income should be regarded as the long-term policy to stimulate the demand for life insurance and the social security mechanism should be perfected continuously to realize the benign interactivity of social security and life insurance.