东北地区近30年来温度变化的时空差异

目的]东北地区作为我国响应全球气候变暖最为显著的地区之一,21世纪以来是否与全球及北半球的气候变化一致,发生了变暖趋势减缓或停滞?方法]为了问答该问题,基于黑吉辽3省71个气象站1981~2010年的气温资料,采用时间序列分析法、克里金插值法,分析东北地区近30年来年际、年代际的年均温和生长季温度的时间变化与空间分布特征,以及冬季温度的数值变化。结果](1)东北地区30年来年均温在波动中呈上升趋势,3省的变化具有同步性;(2)年均温在1991~2000年的增温区域面积扩大显著,尤其是年均温范围为2~4℃的区域向4~6℃变化,但在2001~2010年,年均温的增加趋势减缓、增温区域较少;(3)生长季温度呈明显的上升趋势,1991~2000年与1981~1990年相比升温幅度达到1.4~1.5℃,2001~2010年与1991~2000年相比达到2.3~2.4℃;(4)生长季温度增温区域有明显北移趋势,变化最大的是生长季温度范围为14~16℃的区域向16~18℃变化;(5)2000年后暖冬年份减少,3省冬季温度的增温幅度减小。结论]2000年以来东北生长季(夏、秋季)温度仍具有明显的增温趋势,但"暖冬"现象减弱,导致年均温增幅的减缓。

SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN NORTHEAST CHINA IN LASTEST 30 YEARS

The Northeast China is one of the most significant areas in response to global warming.Based on the monthly average air temperature data from 71 meteorological stations in Northeast China during 1981-2010, This paper analyzed the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of the annual, decadal air temperature and growing seasonal average air temperature in Northeast Chin, using the methods of time series analysis and Kriging spatial interpolation technology.The results showed that (1)the annual average air temperature hadrisen volatility in the past 30 years, and the change of annual mean air temperature was synchronous in the three northeast provinces.(2) The areas with the increase of annual average air temperature expanded significantly in 1990s, and the annual average air temperature increased from 2-4℃ to 4-6℃, with a slow increase in 2000s.(3) The growing seasonal air temperature showed a trend of increase in the past 30 years.Compared with 1980s, the warming range in 1990s was about 1.4-1.5℃, which was about 2.3-2.4℃ higher in 2000s compared with 1990s.(4) The areas with growing seasonal temperature increased remarkably to northward during the period of 1981 to 2010.(5) The trend of growing seasonal air temperature increase was still remarkable in 2000s, but the phenomenon of warm winter was not obvious, and retarded the increase trend of annual average air temperature.