Carts before Horses

The Government has made political capital of its hope that economic growth will complete the recovery initiated by the reduction in the rate of inflation, so that it can 'hold' public expenditure. But, argues economist John Burton, the Government's expectations are over-optimistic. Forecasts of growth nearly always prove false. In any event, growth is unlikely to be anything like sufficient to sustain recovory without substantial cuts - not mere containment - in state spending and taxation. Consolidation will not work.