Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accessionto the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be thebiggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reformsin preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billiona year from reforms after accession), followed by its majortrading partners that also undertake liberalization, includingthe economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China).Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especiallytextiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removalof export quotas. Developing economies competing with Chinain third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will haveimportant distributional consequences for China, with the wagesof skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real termsand relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes,including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvementsin rural education, could more than offset these negative impactsand facilitate the development of China's economy.