Capitalization,population movement,and the local public sector: a probabilistic analysis

Using data collected from household interviews in a 1965 San Francisco Bay Area Transportation Study, a probabilistic model is developed to explain the relationship between population movement and the capitalization of changes in the public sector in the price of housing. This model is constructed to compare 2 competing explanations for the flight of higher income households to the suburbs: 1) the accessibility model and 2) the flight from blight model. The accessibility model explains the decay of cities as a natural outgrowth of decreasing transportation costs, whereas the flight from blight model suggests that the wealthy leave the central city for the suburbs because of urban decay. An analysis of the San Francisco data demonstrates that high income households are more sensitive than the rest of the population to changes in the median income of the neighborhood and in expenditures and general government and education, but less sensitive to changes in property tax rate and expenditures on public safety, parks, and recreation. It is unlikely that undesirable changes in the public sector will result in a mass exodus of higher income households; capitalization in the price of housing appears sufficient to prevent this. The 2 models combined help explain the flight from the central cities, while the combined variables increase the logit estimation's prediction of bids for housing.