“三元悖论”与中国汇率制度选择

＂三元悖论＂的基本原理是指在货币政策独立、资本自由流动和固定汇率这三个经济目标中最多只能同时实现两个,而该理论本身也存在理论假设过于绝对化,组合难以有效实现,政策组合难以执行的局限性。基于对中国资本流动现状和货币政策有效性分析和＂三元悖论＂的基本原理分析,得出我国的汇率制度选择终级目标是实现＂货币政策独立＋资本自由流动＋自由浮动汇率＂的政策组合。

Impossible Trinity and Chinese Exchange Rate System

The basic principle of independence of ＂Trilemma＂is only a theory that can achive two among the independence in monetary policy,such as free capital flows and fixed exchange rates.The theory itself has problems： hypothesis is too absolute,combination is difficult to effectively achieve,difficult to implement the policy mix.Based on the current situation of China＇s capital flows and monetary policy＇s effecttion and the basic principle of Trilemma,it comes to the conclusion that China＇s exchange rate policy choice is the ultimate goal is to achieve ＂independence of monetary policy ＋ Capital flows freely ＋free floating exchange rate＂ policy mix.