铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化动态关系研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

通过建立VAR模型，利用Johansen协整理论、脉冲响应分析、预测方差分解分析等技术分析了1986-2013年铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化之间的动态关系。实证显示：铜陵市金融发展、城镇化及工业化三个变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系；金融发展水平对来自城镇化水平的随机扰动具有正的效应，城镇化水平对来自工业化水平的随机扰动也具有正的效应，且这种效应均是开始不断增强，随后逐渐减弱；反之城镇化及工业化水平的提升对金融发展起的作用越来越重要，进而提出政策建议。

Research on Financial Development,Urbanization and Industrialization Dynamic Relationship of Tongling---Based on VAR Model Empirical Analysis

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the 1986-2013 financial development of Tongling City, urbanization and industrialization through the establishment of VAR model, using Johansen cointegration, impulse response analysis, variance decom-position analysis techniques. The results show： there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among financial development, urban-ization and industrialization of the three variables in Tongling. Level of financial development for the random perturbations from the level of urbanization has a positive effect. Urbanization level of random disturbance from industrial levels also has a positive effect. And this effect was to start growing, and then gradually weaken. Urbanization and industrialization to enhance the level of financial development plays an increasingly important role, but relatively speaking, than a small contribution to the industrialization urbanization contribution.