基于排序Logit模型的土地流转供给、需求收益实证研究——来自2014年河北11个地级市的农户经验数据

土地流转问题既是经济性问题，又是社会性问题，土地流转的有序运转是中国经济改革的重中之重。根据土地流转市场状况，目前很多农户的土地流转是通过土地流转市场之外进行的，在这种脱离市场情况下的土地流转是否符合目前的土地流转趋势，是否可以给农户带来明显的效益，这些都是亟待考察的问题。不同地区土地流转不同，所以，河北省的土地流转与收入的关系不能严格按照其他省份的调查数据来推断，需要进一步进行实证研究。文章根据对河北省11个地级市所辖的农村进行土地流转调查，采用排序Logit模型研究了土地流转供给、需求收益状况。结果表明：土地流入降低了农户的收入。这说明目前的土地经营还没有形成集中连片的规模经营，局部、零星的土地流转对于农民收入并没有显著性的影响，只有大规模地进行土地流转与集中经营，才可以形成规模经营，从而产生土地流转的效益，明显使得这部分农民收入有所提高。土地的再转包对农户家庭受益影响是正向的、土地流出可以提高农户收入，农户收益的提高主要有两个方面原因：一是农业耕种的效率低下，外出打工的高收益，促进了农户们放弃自己的土地进程务工，在土地流出中获得较高的转包收益；二是农户在对外打工中获得较高的收益，且该收益要高于农地经营的收益。这两部分收益形成了将土地流出农户的家庭主要收入。

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE REVENUE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF LAND CIRCULATION BASED ON ORDER LOGIT MODEL*---FROM FARMERS′DATA IN 11 CITIES OF HEBEI PROVINCE IN 2014

Land circulation is both an economic problem and a social problem. The orderly operation of land circu-lation is the key of China′s economic reform. According to the land circulation market data, many farmers have conducted the land circulation outside the market. It is urgent to study whether the land circulation outside the mar-ket is in line with the trend and whether it can bring obvious profits to farmers. The ways of land circulation in vari-ous areas are different. Thus, the relationship between land circulation and benefitsin Hebei province cannot be concluded from other provinces. Based on the investigation of land circulation in 11 prefecture-level villages, this paper studied the supply, demand and benefits of land circulationadopting Logit model. The results showed: the land inflow reduced farmers′incomes. The scale management had not been formed, and local and scattered land transfer had no obvious influence on farmers′ earnings. The large land circulation and centralized management can form the scale management and significantly improve farmers′ income. The re-subcontract had positive effect on farmer′s family earnings,and the land outflow can improve the incomes of farmers due to two reasons, first, the benefits of migrant work promoted farmers to drop their land and obtain high subcontract interests from the land out-flow. Second, the income by working in cities was higher than that in farming.