弱势回稳的世界经济:新变量、新动力、新机遇——2020年世界经济分析报告

受贸易摩擦、地缘政治和衰退风险等重大不确定因素的共同影响,2019年的世界经济面临着不断下行的压力。发达国家和新兴经济体的经济增速出现了同步放缓。展望2020年,随着中美贸易摩擦和英国"脱欧"紧张局势缓解以及各国继续运用货币与财政手段进行"政策托底",世界经济有望弱势回稳。其中,发达经济体的增长势头趋缓。美国将迎来大选,政府有动力刺激经济实现温和的增长;欧洲的增长会更为缓慢,部分南欧国家爆发债务危机的可能性仍然存在;日本的经济增长可能会因为消费税上调而出现负面影响。新兴经济体的增长动能有望增强,但部分国家面临着债务、汇率及民粹主义风险,各国经济走势也将出现分化。随着中国改革开放力度的增强,中国经济将持续成为全球经济发展的核心推力与稳定器。

Weak and Stable World Economy: New Variables,New Drivers and New Opportunities

The world economy faces downward pressure in 2019 due to a combination of major uncertainties,such as trade frictions,geopolitics and recession risks.Growth in developed and emerging economies has slowed in tandem.Looking ahead to 2020,the world economy is expected to stabilize at a weak pace as trade frictions between China and the United States,tensions over Britain’s exit from the European Union ease,and countries continue to use monetary and fiscal tools to provide policy support.Among them,growth in advanced economies has slowed.With an election looming,the government has an incentive to stimulate modest growth.Growth will be slower in Europe,where a debt crisis in some southern European countries remains a possibility.Japan’s growth could suffer as a result of the consumption tax rise.Emerging economies are likely to gain momentum,but some face debt,currency and populist risks and diverging economic trends.With the strengthening of China’s reform and opening up,the Chinese economy will continue to become the core thrust and stabilizer of global economic development.