技术差距、技术溢出与中国的技术进步:基于中美行业贸易数据的实证分析

文章利用1998~2007年的中美制造业四位数行业数据,对中美技术差距对进出口贸易技术溢出效应的影响进行了实证研究。结果显示,中美之间的贸易确实促进了中国的技术进步,中国正加速对美国的技术追赶;回归结果同时显示,随着中国技术水平逐渐逼近美国,贸易带来的技术溢出具有"天花板效应",以贸易来促进国内技术进步的难度在加大。进一步的分析表明,相比较出口而言,随着中美两国技术水平的接近,进口溢出引致的技术进步会更快遭遇递减局面。文章的分析结果表明,随着中国国内产品技术水平的提高与中美技术差距的缩小,传统的以贸易促进步策略越来越难以奏效,此时加大科技投入,激励并促进中国国内的自主研发是提高国内技术水平与技术进步的根本之策。

Technological Gap,Technological Spillover and Technological Progress: An Empirical Analysis Based on Sino-US Industry Trade Data

Based on the four-digit industry data of China and the United States in 1998~2007,this paper empirically studies the impact of Sino-US technological gap on the technological spillover effects of trade.The results show the trade between China and the United States has promoted China’s technological progress,and China is accelerating catching up with the United States in technology;the results of the regression also show the technological spillovers brought by trade have a"ceiling effect",and as the technology of China gradually approaches that of the United States,promoting domestic technological progress by trade becomes more difficult.Further analysis shows that compared with exports,the technological spillovers caused by import will encounter a diminishing situation more quickly when China’s technology is gradually catching up with the United States.In conclusion,with the improvement of China’s technology which causes narrowing technological gap between China and the United States,the traditional trade promotion strategies are increasingly difficult to achieve.Therefore,increasing investment in science and promoting the independent research in China is the fundamental strategy for making more technological progress.