河南农村物流需求的组合预测及策略研究

河南作为农业大省大力发展农村物流对其率先实现中部崛起有着很重要的现实意义,预测河南农村物流需求对于制定发展战略显得尤为重要。文中以河南农村消费品零售总额为河南农村物流需求预测指标,综合一元线性回归、时间序列双指数平滑法、移动平均法,建立组合预测模型,追求预测误差平方和最小,预测出河南农村物流需求呈良性发展趋势,并就进一步发展河南农村物流提出建议。

The Research On the Combined Forecast and Strategy of Henan Province's Rural Logistics Demand

Being an agricultural province, the development of Henan's rural logistics has practical signficance to realize the rise of center China, the analysis of the rural logistics demand is more imporant than before.The paper takes total retail sales of consumer goods as rural logistics demand forecast indication, synthesizes single linear regression, double exponential smoothing forecast, moving average forecast, establishes a combined forecast model, pursues the smallest error, predicts it has a better developm...