| 山东省耕地动态变化趋势及驱动力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭洪海,宋民.山东省耕地动态变化趋势及驱动力分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2009,30(1):51-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭洪海 宋民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东省农业可持续发展研究所,济南,250001
2. 山东省农业资源区划办公室,济南,250001 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部农业资源区划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 阐述了山东省耕地数量的变化历程,对耕地空间变化趋势进行分析,用主成分分析了耕地变化的驱动力,采用灰色系统方法预测了山东省耕地变化趋势,说明耕地面积变化是自然、社会、经济因素综合作用的结果。提出山东省要确保533.3万hm2基本农田的"底线"。
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| 关 键 词： | 山东省 耕地 动态变化趋势 驱动力分析 |
Analysis on Dynamic Changing Trend of Arrable Land in Shandong Province and its Driving Force |
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| Guo Honghai,Song Min.Analysis on Dynamic Changing Trend of Arrable Land in Shandong Province and its Driving Force[J].Journal of China Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2009,30(1):51-57. |
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| Authors: | Guo Honghai Song Min |
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| Institution: | (1.Agriculture Sustainable Development Research Institute of Shandong Province,Jinan 250001;2.Agriculture Resources and Regional Planning Office of Shandong province,Jinan 250001) |
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| Abstract: | This paper expounds the changing history of arable land quantity in Shandong Province and analyzes the space changing trend of these arable lands.It analyzes the driving force for these changes by analyzing the major elements,and adopts grey system method to forecast the changing trend of arable land in Shandong province.Results indicate that arable land area change is an outcome from jointly function by nature,social and economical factors.The paper puts forward the idea that Shandong Province should insure the ’base line’ of 5.333 million hm2 basic farmland. |
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| Keywords: | Shandong province arable land dynamic changing trend driving force analysis |
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