The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports: Empirical Evidence

Unless very specific assumptions are made, theory alone cannotdetermine the sign of the relation between real exchange rateuncertainty and exports. On the one hand, convexity of the profitfunction with respect to prices implies that an increase inprice uncertainty raises the expected returns in the exportsector. On the other, potential asymmetries in the cost of adjustingfactors of production (for example, investment irreversibility)and risk aversion tend to make the uncertainty-exports relationnegative. This article examines these issues using a simplerisk-aversion model. Export equations allowing for uncertaintyare then estimated for six developing countries. Contrary tothe ambiguity of the theory, the empirical relation is stronglynegative. Our estimates indicate that a 5 percent increase inthe annual standard deviation of the real exchange rate canreduce exports by 2 to 30 percent in the short run. These effectsare substantially magnified in the long run.