气候变化对黑河流域水资源影响分析

在全球气候变暖的背景下，选取水资源紧缺的黑河流域作为研究对象，使用统计方法分析了黑河产流区气温、降雨、蒸发、径流变化规律。得出的结论是：黑河流域气温升高同全球变暖趋势相一致，且升温幅度大于全球平均气温升高值，从20世纪70年代到现在，黑河流域平均气温升高了1cc左右：产流区降水量围绕多年均值波动，有增加趋势；产流区蒸发量自20世纪80年代至目前呈下降趋势，特别是20世纪90年代以后．蒸发量下降较多；径流围绕多年均值波动，有增加趋势；随着气温升高，极端气候事件洪水、干旱灾害发生风险加大。

The impact of climate change on water resources of Heihe river

The Heihe River basin, with a shortage of water resources, is studied under the background of global warming. Statistic method is used to analyze its change law of air temperature, rainfall, evaporation, and runoff. It concludes that air temperature rising is consistent with the trend of global warming, but with a higher amplitude; air temperature increase about 1℃ since 1970s; precipitation and runoff, fluctuating around their annual average, have rising trends; the evaporation begin to decrease from 1980s, especial in 1990s. The extreme climate events, such as flood and drought, are increasing with the rising of air temperature,