通货膨胀、劳动力市场与工资率走势

当前的通货膨胀，属内外结合的复合型通胀。本文提出劳动年龄人口供给变动的三个阶段：第一阶段是2010年以前的总体过剩阶段，表现为劳动力买方市场，工资率被人为压低；第二阶段是劳动年龄人口占比越过峰值，但尚未达到绝对数量峰值，劳动力市场由供大于求向供求平衡转变，工资率处于劳资博弈状态；第三阶段是2017年以后，即占比和绝对数量总体短缺阶段，工资率将呈持续上涨趋势。当前处于第二阶段，由于劳动年龄人口供大于求的逐步结束和工资欠账较多，工资率理应有一个较大幅度的提升；不过要适度，因为总体上还处于劳动力由供大于求向供求平衡转变；更要着眼于实际工资的提升，因为仅仅名义工资的提升是有害的，对通胀治理不利。

Inflation,Labor Market and Trend of Wage Rate

The present inflation is compound inflation influenced by internal and external factors.The paper brings forward three stages of supply changes of working-age population: 1) Not until 2010,the first stage can be described as a buyer’s market of labor,in which labor has been generally in surplus and wage rate has been lowered intendedly.2) In the second stage,the proportion of working-age population has passed the peak and declined,supply surplus comes to balance gradually,and wage rate depends on the Labor Game.3) The third stage is estimated to be after 2017 and will show overall shortage of labor both in proportion and absolute quantity.Wage rate will increase constantly.The labor supply is presently on the second stage and wage rate is expected to increase greatly.But the increase of wage rate should be moderate.Real wages should be focused because the increase of only nominal wages is harmful to inflation control.