抚养负担、居民健康与经济增长——影响我国县市经济发展的人口特征因素

文章在扩展经济趋同理论研究框架的基础上,建立了抚养负担影响经济增长的可识别方程,并利用2000-2007年我国县级层面数据进行了实证检验,研究发现:老年和少儿抚养负担的加重对经济增长均有非常显著的负向影响,并且前者的影响更大;居民健康水平对经济增长有非常显著的正向影响;选择更为合理的衡量居民健康水平的指标对正确识别健康与抚养负担对经济增长的真实影响非常重要。文章指出,随着我国人口老龄化趋势的加快,伴随人口生育水平下降的少儿抚养负担的减轻和居民健康水平的改进可能仍不足以抵消老年抚养负担加重对经济增长的负向影响。

Dependency Ratios,the Health of Residents and Economic Growth: Demographic Characteristics Affecting County Economic Growth in China

On the basis of the extension of the theoretical framework of economic convergence,this paper establishes an identified equation concerning the impact of dependency ratios on economic growth,and makes an empirical test by cross-county data from 2000 to 2007.The results are shown as follows: firstly,the increases in aged and child dependency ratios,especially the former,have significantly negative effects on economic growth;secondly,the health of residents has significantly positive effects on economic growth;thirdly,to choose a more reasonable indicator of the health of residents is of great importance to the correct identification of the real effects of health and dependency ratios on economic growth.It arrives at a conclusion that,as the issue of aging population becomes more serious in China’ perhaps the decease in child dependency ratio and the health improvement of residents will not offset the negative effect of the increase in aged dependency ratio on economic growth.