基于AHP的甘肃农业发展水平评价研究

目的]通过对甘肃农业发展水平进行研究,分析甘肃农业发展水平和现状,旨在为甘肃农业可持续发展提供全新的思考路径。方法]运用层次分析法构建评价指标体系,以经济、生态和资源利用水平构成评价综合层,向下分21个可量化的具体指标,并计算各指标权重。对各个指标的原始数据进行标准化处理,最后计算2010~2016年甘肃农业发展水平综合评价值。结果]在综合评价层中,生态效应的权重最大,为0.515 2,其次为资源利用效率,最低为经济效益,为0.155 8,指标层权重前3位分别为人均水资源量、有效灌溉面积和农业机械总动力,权重值分别为0.104 4、0.096 1和0.066 6;2010~2015年,甘肃农业可持续发展水平总体呈上升趋势,但在2016年又出现滑落。结论]水资源对甘肃省农业的发展制约性较大,解决水资源有效利用与保护成为当务之急,而有效灌溉是解决水资源合理利用的有效途径;甘肃农业发展受负向指标影响较大,加强农业现代化和资源利用效率是可持续发展的关键。

STUDY ON THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF RECYCLED RESOURCES IN GANSU PROVINCE

Through the research on the agriculture sustainable development level of Gansu based on renewable resources, this paper analyzes and summarizes the level and current situation of agricultural sustainable development of renewable resources in Gansu province, aiming at providing a new thinking path for the sustainable development of agriculture. The evaluation index system was constructed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The comprehensive evaluation layer was composed of economy, ecology and resource utilization efficiency, which can be divided into 21 quantifiable indexes, and the weights of each index were calculated. The raw data of each index were standardized and the comprehensive evaluation value of agricultural sustainable development of Gansu renewable resources from 2010 to 2016 was calculated. In the comprehensive evaluation layer, the weight of ecological effect was the largest (0.5152), the second was resource utilization efficiency, and the lowest was economic benefit (0.1558). The first three positions of index layer weight were water resources per capita, effective irrigation area and total power of agricultural machinery, respectively. The weight values were 0.1044 (0.0961) and 0.0666 (2010 ~ 2015) respectively. The sustainable development level of agriculture in Gansu showed an overall upward trend, but declining again in 2016. Water resources were very restrictive to the development of agriculture in Gansu province. It was urgent to solve the effective utilization and protection of water resources. Effective irrigation was effective to solve the rational use of water resources. The agricultural development in Gansu was greatly influenced by negative indicators. The key for the sustainable development was to strengthen agricultural modernization and resource utilization efficiency.