基于灰色系统理论的我国石油消费对外依存度预测

在分析石油消费对外依存度与各个产业比重的关联度的基础之上,选取关联度最大的第二产业比重建立GM(1,1)模型,引入二阶软化算子调整第二产业比重数列,然后在此基础上建立石油消费对外依存度和第二产业比重的GM(1,2)模型。结果表明,我国石油消费对外依存度以年均1.51%的速度增长,到2018年将达60%。依据石油消费对外依存度指标等级分值表可知,届时我国石油安全处于高度危险的水平,因此,针对如何降低石油消费对外依存度给出了三点建议。

The Forecast of Degree of External Dependence on Oil Consumption in China Based on Grey System Theory

On the basis of analysis on correlation degree of degree of external dependence on oil consumption and all industrial proportions,the secondary industry proportion,as the maximum of correlation degrees,was selected to build the model of GM(1,1).The second-order weakening operator was introduced to adjust the secondary industry proportion;and then based on this,the model of GM(1,2) of degree of external dependence on oil consumption and secondary industry proportion was build.The results showed that,degree of external dependence on oil consumption grew with speed of an annual average rate of 1.51%,and would have reached 60% by 2018.Based on the table of grading,China’s oil security would have been at the level of high-risk by then.Therefore,three recommendations were given on how to reduce the degree of external dependence on oil consumption.