山东省海洋经济的生态环境效应评估及预测

在分析我国海洋经济活动及其对生态环境影响的基础上,构建了由压力、状态、响应3个子系统29个指标组成的海洋经济活动的生态环境效应评估指标体系,并以山东省为例进行定量评价,随后构建了生态环境综合效应指数及其分级评判标准,采用BP神经网络进行模拟预测。结果表明:2000—2012年,山东省海洋经济活动的生态环境效应呈现由一般到较大的变化,且预测结果呈恶化趋势;粗放式的海洋资源开发利用方式对资源、环境的胁迫作用明显,加之状态子系统对响应子系统存在滞后型,各种响应措施并未对状态产生积极作用,海域环境状态仍呈退化趋势。

Assessment and Prediction on Ecological Effects of Coastal Development in Shandong Province

Based on the analysis of the development activities and the ecological environment in the coastal areas of Shandong Province,the evaluation index system of the ecological environment effects,which was composed of 3 sub-systems and 29 indexes,was constructed by the pressure,state and response subsystems.By the comprehensive index evaluation method,the integrated effects of ecological environment index (EI)was calculated and its grading criterion was founded,and then using BP neural network to simulate and predict.The results showed that the ecological environment effect of Shandong Province coastal development varied from being relatively small to normal,and then to relatively large changes,and the results predicted a worsening trend from 2000 to 2012.As the resources and environment pressures caused by coastal development were serious and a delay existed in the state relative to the response,the improvement of various measures in the response subsystem did not show a positive effect on the state,and the environmental quality of ocean showed degradation trend.