中国鲜、冷藏马铃薯出口贸易的比较优势及影响因素研究

中国是马铃薯第一生产大国,并且在马铃薯出口构成中,鲜、冷藏马铃薯(0701)占有十分重要的出口地位,再加上2015年中国提出推进马铃薯主食产品及产业开发的规划,在这样的背景下,对中国鲜、冷藏马铃薯出口贸易进行研究,就显得十分有意义。为此,利用国外市场占有率、出口价格、RCA指数和TC指数对中国鲜、冷藏马铃薯出口贸易的比较优势进行了研究,发现不同指标下,中国鲜、冷藏马铃薯出口贸易的比较优势呈现出不同的状态;利用回归分析对中国鲜、冷藏马铃薯出口贸易的影响因素进行了研究,发现出口价格、地理距离、出口对象国的GDP会反向影响出口数量,中国的人口数量会正向影响出口数量,货币兑换比率、中国马铃薯产量和出口对象国的人口数量对出口数量无任何统计意义上的影响力。最后,提出要加大对马铃薯产业链建设的扶持,要注重中国周边市场的开发,要充分发挥国内市场对马铃薯产业发展的引导作用,不要忽视价格竞争优势的作用,加强与马铃薯有关的文化建设活动,加强国际物流与供应链管理,适时引导企业走出去。

ANALYSIS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF CHINA′S EXPORT OF FRESH OR CHILLED POTATOES

China is a country with the biggest production of potatoes. Fresh or chilled potatoes(0701) playan im-portant role in potatoes export. The plan of the exploitation of main food product and industry of potatoes had been put forward. Based on that, an analysis of China′s export of fresh or chilled potatoes become very significant. This paper analyzed the comparative advantage of China′s export of fresh or chilled potatoes using the indexes of interna-tional market share, unit price of export, revealed comparative advantage( RCA) and trade competitiveness( TC) , and studied the influential factors of China′s export of fresh or chilled potatoes by the method of regression analysis. The results showed that export price, distance and GDP of importing country had negative influences on export quantity of China′s fresh or chilled potatoes, while the population of China had positive influence. Currency ex-change rate between China and importing countries, potatoes output of China,and the population of importing coun-tries had no statistical significance. At last, some suggestions were proposed that we should support the construction of industry chain of potatoes, pay more attention to exploit neighbor market, make full use of guide function of do-mestic market for the development of potatoes industry, never ignore the competitive advantage of price, strengthen culture construction about potatoes, enhance the management of international logistics and supply chain, and guide the enterprises going abroad in time.