A socio-economic activity distribution model for nonincorporated minor civil divisions; The case of Maryland

Planners and administrators alike increasingly recognize the need for a quantitative tool that could be used to evaluate the effects of policies and other socio-economic attributes on the level of activities in non-incorporated subcounty areas of the State. In this paper, a quantitative model that could be used for such a purpose in presented.To overcome the problem of insufficiency of census data, temporal administrative data were collected for 224 Minor Civil Divisions or Election Districts (MCD's or ED's) of 20 counties of the State of Maryland from eclectric sources and then processed through utilization of University of Maryland multi-variate computer programs. Regressional equations were then constructed for a host of socio-economic activities (e.g. population, employment, etc.). The outcome of this endeavor supports a proposition advocated by the author in an earlier working paper (June 1979) namely that variables denoting such activities and their respective attributes could be obtained by processing administrative data which is tabulated periodically by county, State and public utility organizations.Although only the general model is presented hereafter, the results obtained in this research endeavor reinforce the idea that a family of models rather than a single general model should be constructed for various types of MCD's of the State (e.g. rural and urban). Moreover, the results seem to support ideas advocated by the author 13] and Hill 11] in their respective studies that the equations of the model could be improved even further by transforming them into a “Semiendogenous” form.The model in its present form could be used as a tool for carrying out an impact analysis study. For instance, the impact of sewer and water facilities as well as land use policies on building permits could be examined through the utilization of this model. Another example of its applicability is the examination of employment opportunity impact on population or the average price of dwelling units. Although all needed data were assembled, to use the model as a forecasting tool requires consultation with county planning officials concerning future policies (e.g. land use, sewer/water) and some improvement of the mode(s).