经济增长的投资效应与影响路径:一个脉冲响应的函数分析

本文利用向量自回归 (VectorAutoregresion)模型中的脉冲响应函数检验了中国自 1 978年以来经济增长对投资的响应路径 ,结果发现 ,在整个期间 ,投资具有非常明显的短期性 ,而且经济增长率对投资的响应弹性在大多数的时间显著小于 1 ,这也说明了投资仍然是粗放型的 ,而不是集约型的。在得出这个结论后 ,我们利用现有的投资数据对结论进行了验证 ,发现 :中国的投资简单地注重了增量扩张 ,而没有注重存量调整 ;投资结构的失衡 ,导致了投资过度仍然必须通过投资校正 ,而这在客观上会导致投资的短期性和粗放性。

The Effects of Investment on Economic Growth and Its Path:The Analysis of Impulse Response Function

This paper tests the response of economic growth to the investment since 1978 using vector auto-regression model, and the result shows that investment, during the whole period, has the obvious short effects, and the response elasticity is significantly less than one. It proves that the investment is of resource consuming, not technology improving. Then, this paper verifies with some data that the investment in China stresses marginal expansion but neglects stock adjustment. The investment structure is imbalanced, causing the over-investment to be adjusted with more investment.