金融去杠杆对经济增长和经济波动的影响

金融去杠杆会影响经济增长和经济波动,而金融结构变迁和金融发展水平变化可能使金融去杠杆与宏观经济之间的关联呈现出差异性.本文以全球97个国家和地区1980—2015年的年度非平衡面板数据为研究样本,实证检验了金融去杠杆对宏观经济的影响,以及金融结构变迁和金融发展水平变化对二者关联的影响.结果表明,金融去杠杆会抑制经济增长,同时加大经济波动;以资本市场为代表的直接金融的发展会弱化金融去杠杆对经济增长的负效应和对经济波动的放大效应;而金融结构的变迁和以金融中介为代表的间接金融的发展不会对金融去杠杆与宏观经济之间的关联产生影响.这表明,在金融去杠杆背景下,监管部门应采用可控的手段来稳步推进金融去杠杆进程,避免产生"处置风险的风险".与此同时,还应加快资本市场的发展,以平抑金融去杠杆对宏观经济可能带来的负面影响.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Financial Deleveraging on Economic Growth and Fluctuations

Financial deleveraging will affect economic growth and economic fluctuations, and the changes of financial structure and financial development may influence the relationship between financial deleveraging and micro-economy. Based on the GMM estimation method and using the panel data of 97 countries and regions from 1980 to 2015 as samples, this paper examines the effects of financial deleveraging on economic growth and fluctuations, as well as the impacts of financial structure and financial development on the relationship between financial deleveraging and micro-economy. It shows that financial deleveraging has a negative impact on economic growth and will increase economic fluctuations. The development of direct finance represented by capital market will weaken the effects of financial deleveraging on economic growth and fluctuations. However, the changes of financial structure and the development of indirect finance represented by financial intermediary have no significant influence on the relationship between financial deleveraging and micro-economy. The results implicate that, in the context of deleveraging process, controllable and progressive measures should be taken in order to avoid systemic risks. At the same time, the policy authority should accelerate the development of capital market in order to weaken the adverse effects of financial deleveraging on economic growth and fluctuations.