集聚类型与中国出口产品演化——基于产品技术复杂度的研究

提高出口产品技术含量是现阶段增加国家出口产品竞争力和增长动力的重要课题.本文利用2000—2011年HS4分位数中国海关进出口统计数据,通过构建不同类型的集聚经济与产品技术复杂度指标,从技术复杂度出发,研究不同类型集聚经济影响中国出口产品演化的微观机制与作用途径.本文研究发现,不同类型的集聚经济所带来的外部性改善了城市出口产品结构,显著提高了高技术复杂度产品进入的概率,降低了高技术复杂度产品退出的风险,促进了中国出口产品结构的升级.具体来说,多样化不仅有利于提高高技术复杂度产品进入的概率,同时也显著降低了高技术复杂度产品退出的风险,而专业化增加了高技术复杂度产品退出的风险.进一步地,不同类型集聚经济的影响也存在显著的区域差异.本文的研究表明,在出口转型的关键时期,通过提升城市产业集聚水平,尤其是多样化集聚水平来助推我国出口升级,对于我国经济结构转型升级具有极大的现实意义.

Agglomeration Economy and the Evolution of Export Sophistication in China

Improving the sophistication of export products is an important project to increase the competitiveness and growth momentum in China. Based on the statistics ( 2000―2011 ) of the General Administration of Customs of China, this paper establishes different types of indicators of agglomeration economy and technical sophistication, and attempts to explore the underlying micro-mechanisms for export upgrading in China. We find that agglomeration economy significantly reduces sophisticated product entry barriers and exit risks, where product sophistication is captured using a measure developed by Hausmann and Hidalgo (2009 ). To be specific, variety influentially contributes more to the introduction of new products. However, specialization increases the probability of exit of sophisticated products. This paper has expanded basic relationship between agglomeration and export growth, and is helpful for further understanding of China's export upgrading.