Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model |
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| Affiliation: | 1. International Food Policy Research Institute, Egypt;2. International Food Policy Research Institute, Kenya;3. International Food Policy Research Institute, Sudan;1. Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technische Hochschule Köln (University of Applied Sciences), Cologne 50679, Germany;2. Department of Geography, University of Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, D-50923 Cologne, Germany;3. Department of Agricultural Engineering, College of Agricultural Studies, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Khartoum North, Sudan;4. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian, Shandong, PR China;5. General Administration of Agricultural Planning and Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Sudan |
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| Abstract: | The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach. |
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| Keywords: | Rainfall patterns Food security Stochastic approach CGE Sudan |
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