我国高耗能行业电力消费中长期发展潜力预测

利用1985—2009年的年度数据,对我国高耗能行业用电量与GDP、行业产值、行业投资、城市化水平、行业投资结构等之间的相关关系进行了实证研究,采用情景分析法对2011—2020年7个情景下的我国高耗能用电的发展潜力及行业发展前景进行了预测。结果表明:高耗能用电与宏、微观经济变量之间存在长期均衡和短期偏离关系;城市化水平、高耗能行业投资结构是影响高耗能用电的重要因素;高耗能用电对GDP的发展速度比较敏感,在高耗能行业的投资与产值保持目前增长速度的情景下,高耗能用电走势与基准情景比较接近;2011—2020年高耗能行业继续发挥对经济的拉动作用,但巨大的资源消耗与能源环境代价呼唤高耗能行业进行绿色转型。

Forecasting for Long-term Development Potential of Electricity Consumption in Energy-Intensive Industries of China

Using the annual data during 1985-2009,this paper empirically studies the correlations between electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries and GDP,investment as well output value of energy-intensive industries,urbanization level,and investment structure of energy-intensive industries.Then it subsequently predicts the electricity consumption potential and development prospect of energy-intensive industries in 7 scenarios hypothesis by the scenario analysis method.The results show as follows:there exists the long-term equilibrium and the short-term deviation between electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries and GDP,industrial output value and investment;industrial investment structure and urbanization level are the important factors influencing the electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries;the comparative scenario analysis result indicates that the electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries is sensitive to the growth rate of GDP,and the electricity consumption under the scenario of industrial investment and output value maintaining as the current growth rate,is closer to that under the baseline scenario;energy-intensive industries maintain pulling the economic growth during 2011-2020;however,huge resource consumption and environmental cost call for green transformation in the development of energy-intensive industries.