欧元区东扩的进程、问题及其影响

欧元区的扩大进程正在紧锣密鼓地进行。欧元区东扩,即欧盟10个新成员加入欧元区,将是欧洲经济与货币一体化的重要里程碑,也是欧盟一体化进程中的巨大挑战之一。2007~2010年间,欧盟的10个东欧新成员将分别加入欧元区,欧元区可能将由现在的12国扩大为22国。目前,10个新成员正在积极创造条件加入欧元区,其中有5个国家已经达标(《马斯特里赫特条约》规定的趋同标准)。本文认为,新成员是否应该加入欧元区,应权衡得失,从成本和收益方面综合考虑。理性的选择应是在合适的时间、收益高于成本的情况下加入欧元联盟;应该从经济、政治利益方面综合考虑作出决定,而不应该单纯从政治上考虑。欧元区东扩对新老成员的影响利大于弊。欧元的国际地位上升,但未来欧元汇率的不确定性因素增加,国际货币格局将发生重大变化。

The Enlargement of the Euro Area: process, problems and consequence

The enlargement of the Euro Area from EUR-12 to EUR-22 is just under the way. The candidates of Euro Area -10 new member states in EU are mostly like to be the new members in Euro Area during 2007-2010. There are Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia。This event will not only be a milestone, but also be a big challenge to EMU. At present, there are 6 new EU member states have reached the Maastricht convergence criteria. If they become the new members of the Euro Area, the gains would be exceeded the loss resulted from the entrance into EMU.I believe that the right time for EMU entry is when the gains are bigger than the loss. They should consider both the economic environment and the political situation. The consequence of the enlargement of the Euro Area will be significant. Both the new members and the original members will be beneficial from the enlargement of the Euro Area. Euro will play a more important role in the global economy while the Euro exchange rates against other currencies will be more volatile. Furthermore, this enlargement will result in some significant impacts on the international monetary system.