Forecast Summary

The forecast illustrates the costs and benefits of joining the ERM at the relatively high central parity of DM2.95. It shows that, providing the government does keep the pound within its wide 6 per cent EMS band, retail price inflation can be brought down to the average European level of 3 per cent by the mid 1990s. But there is a cost in terms of lower output and rising unemployment. GDP growth is expected to slow to about 1 1/2per cent this year and next and to average 2 per cent or slightly more from 1992 onwards. This is less than the rate of growth of productive potential and implies a weak labour market with unemployment rising steadily bock above 2 million. The forecast assumes a $25 oil price; in an alternative we sketch out the implications of a rise in the price to $45 for a limited period.